EVS 23 Brain Droppings

Had an opportunity to spend the day down at the Electric Vehicle Symposium last Monday in Anaheim, CA. What follows are some top line observations and some really awful pictures I took with my exceedingly lame camera phone.

Two "Oh Crap" Moments: A number of presentations included some telling projections. For example:

• Current vehicle ownership: 12% of the global population (820 million vehicles). By 2020, it'll be 15% (1 billion vehicles). Highest growth, not surprisingly, will be in the developing world (India, China, Brazil, etc.) That’s 150 million more vehicles on the road in 12 years. Good chance that a large percentage of these will have to be alt fuel.
• California GhG Emissions goals. 80% reduction by 2050. To get there, one scenario
  estimates that 11% of the cars on the road will be gasoline powered ICE. The vast majority will be alt fuel mixed with battery driven electric drive. (BTW, hydrogen was estimated to be ~12%. I doubt it'll even be that much.)

Batteries Will be Ubiquitous: No matter what technology or fuel was being discussed, batteries are invariably the central theme. Now, granted it’s a conference about electric vehicles, so batteries are going to be part of the conversation. That said, the constant attention paid to batteries (chemistry, capabilities, etc.) speaks to the critical role advances in these technologies will play. Not surprisingly, the companies seeking the fill this rapidly growing need were present and accounted for: A123, EnerDel, etc.

First Sign of the Apocalypse Confirmed: In a presentation on the Chevy Volt, GM admitted that they’ve “made some mistakes in the past” related to efficiency technologies. Come to think of it, that probably qualifies as Understatement of the Decade as well...

Legislation Will Impact the Alt Fuel Market From All Directions: Whether it be emissions reduction (e.g. UK Low Emissions Zone around London), spurring innovation (e.g. Austrian Agency for Alternative Propulsion Systems), or other areas, governments will continue to be play a critical role. A combination of legislative carrots and sticks will provide huge opportunities for those companies that are to successfully anticipate and react.

I Get the Feeling China Is Big: No conference today is complete without a discussion about China and the implications of its market. No exception here. An official from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology gave a brief talk on the state of EV research and emissions there. Essentially, the combination of a rapidly growing energy gap (resulting from a deficit of oil imports compared to growth in vehicle ownership) and air quality (or lack thereof) mean the government will be playing a very active role in developing and promoting alt fuel and efficiency technology adoption. One way will be through legislation: in 2000, the floor of Chinese vehicle efficiency was 9.5 liters per 100 KM. In 2010, that will drop to 6.7L / 100KM. The expectation is that the Chinese government will be investing heavily in R&D to facilitate necessary breakthroughs. One estimate was the MOST will receive 2.5% of GDP by 2020 (compared to 1.4% todat and under 1% in 1996.)

Tesla Update: The upstart EV car maker had a only a small booth, but had the foresight to put one of their roadsters in it. As a result, their set up regularly out drew the larger manufacturers, including Chevy Volt and the largely ignored Honda FCX Clarity. To be sure, the company still draws considerable buzz, but you get the feeling that there’s a certain antsiness to see these cars on the road after so much hype. At a presentation on the battery system, the Tesla rep pointedly wouldn't address questions regarding the transmission challenges they've been having. Still, he indicated that first deliveries will take place Q1 2008. Also, no warranty info about the battery pack as of yet, but the speculation is that it will be about 5 years / 100K miles driven.

Battery Buzz: Argonne National Labs partnered with EnerDel to research battery technology focusing on lithium Manganese spinel /lithium-titanate chemistry. Findings seem to indicate excellent power capability and life potential for a lower cost than comparatives.... A representative from Japan's Yuasa Corporation gave a technical discussion of their EH6 battery product. Given the reaction from the (very large) audience, there was a high degree of interest in the product. Lots of questions regarding cost, availablity for testing, distribution, etc. No other presenter in the forum had a similar level of interest.

Lifting the Curtain (Barely) on Mobius Power.

OK, so perhaps I'm getting a little obsessive about Mobius Power (don't both following this link to their site: there's nothing there...) But I can't help it. The secretive battery maker is tighter with information than VP Dick Cheney after he's forgotten to take his anti-psychotics.

A couple of tantalizing tidbits have appeared recently, though. To whit:

1. Job Postings on FlipDog. In job listings for Chemical and Process Engineering Techs, the company description specifically mentions Lithium Ion as the root technology. Also, lots of mention of experimentation in the position descriptions, so I guess we can infer that the company is a ways off from commercializing their technology.

2. New Office Space. According to the Contra Costa Times, Mobius is relocating from Sunnyvale to a 12,000 sq. ft. R&D building in Fremont. The broker who arranged the deal is quoted as saying that there are 10 people with the company, but that there are plans to staff up about 30 in short order.

That's it. I know it's not much. But short of sleeping on their stoop... hey now, there's an idea...

PHEV Converters: Great idea, Not Sustainable

Lots of news about PHEVs these days:

• Ford and Southern California Edison are announcing today a partnership to examine customer usage of PHEV modified Ford Escapes. Ford apparently hopes that focusing on the Escape (rather than a concept car like the Chevrolet Volt) will allow them to bring a PHEV to mass market more quickly.
• The federal government continues to bat around a number of ideas on how to spark development in PHEVs. For example, the House included provisions in the recently debated DRIVE Act aimed at providing for 5,000 PHEV conversions in 5 test locations.

So it appears the PHEV gold rush of the early 21st century is officially on. While the main automakers slowly move their behemoth operations to fill this rapidly expanding niche, several after market PHEV conversion operations have spring to life. These include:

• EnergyCS: One of the first players in this space. Like most PHEV converters, focuses primarily on the Prius with lithium ion technology.
  
• Hybrid-Plus: Lithium-ion conversions. In addition to the Prius, also offering Fortd Escape conversions. While most converters target fleets, Hybrids-Plus targets individuals as well.
• Hymotion: Recently acquired by much ballyhooed A123 Systems. (Admittedly, I'm guilty of abetting the ballyhooing). Canadian-based company converts both Priuses and Escapes for fleets. Will start offering conversions for individuals in 2008.
  
• EDrive Systems: Uses technology originally developed by EnergyCS. Not yet installing.
  
• Green Car Company: A relative new player in this space. PHEV conversions are one of several alt fuel conversions products. Uses lead acid batteries.

That's not a complete list I'm sure, and there will be new additions on a regular basis.

But is it worthwhile from a business perspective? I'm not so sure, for a couple of reasons.

• Market: Most of the converters are focused on the broad swath of Prius owners as their target audience, figuring that these early adopters will be willing to pony up for a product that dramatically extends the range of their vehicles. But with manufacturer built solutions about 3-5 years away, my impression is that the vast majority of owners will wait for one of these. These cars will provide the personal statement that early adopters are seeking (the main reason people buy a Prius in the first place) that a converted car cannot provide.
  
• Expense: Conversion aren't cheap. Baseline at present is $10,000 USD. Will the mass market use those funds to convert an older car or use it as a down payment on a newer one when it becomes available.
• Bandwidth: Converters are small companies. By the time they effectively ramp up to deal with potential demand (for both installation and service), the big players will be that much closer to roll out their own products. Which, by the way, will be supported by their existing warranty and service infrastructure.
  

PHEV converters have played an invaluable role in drawing attention to the promise of these vehicles, and have spurred major automakers to really commit to the development of PHEVs.
Unfortunately, the long terms viability of these companies remains in doubt.

More batteries: Mysterious Mobius and Fascinating Firefly

No matter what fuel or technology you're interested in or advocating for, there's one thing they all have in common: a need for advanced batteries. Extending the range of a vehicle to enhance efficiency and reduce emissions demands an advanced battery system. Doesn't matter if it's fueled by ethanol, hydrogen, electricity, or cow manure.

As a result, some of the most interesting advances are coming from battery start ups. (Consequently, a ton of money is pouring in here as well.) Here's a couple more to keep an eye on.

Mobius Power
I just read on Venture Beat that a battery maker named Mobius Power just raised $4.5 million in venture funding. No description of the technology appeared. Oddly, the announcement included the following statement from Wade Woodson of Sigma Partners, one of the investors: the company is “too unformed to be interesting.”

Which can mean only one thing, perhaps: that the company is very interesting, and there's some objective to downplaying it at this time.

The company website is a placeholder. Not much else to speak of on the web. Very stealthy.

Firefly Energy
A spin off from heavy equipment maker Caterpillar, Firefly Energy is breathing new life into an old battery technology: lead acid. The company uses a patented process that replaces the traditional lead plates of a lead acid battery with a carbon or graphite foam. With a greater surface area, the foam increases energy interaction leading to greater capacity and reduced charge time.

By combining new tech with old tech, Firefly is theoretically able to produce a well performing product at an aggressive price point: about $100 - $150 per kilowatt hour (at least according to company spokespeople...) Compare that to ~ $800 per kilowatt hour for NiMH, and ~$1,000 for Lithium Ion. Now these cost estimates swing widely based on purchase volume and quality of product, but you start to get the idea.

Don Hillebrand leads research regarding hybrids and PHEVs for the Argonne National Laboratory, and he seems ready for coronate the Firefly product, calling it "potentially game-changing technology."

Others apparently think so, too. Electrolux is both an investor and customer (for brands including Husqvarna, Poulan, and Weed Eater). British Aerospace company BAE is also an investor.

All Charged Up: Quick Battery Update

Lots happening with some of the leading makers of advanced batteries targeted for the transportation industry.

• A123: GM announced the winners of their Volt battery beauty pageant, and Germany-based Continental Automotive Systems, a division of Continental AG, was one of the two winners. A123 supplies Continental with their battery technology. GM will evaluate battery product through June 2008, and then make a determination of how to best to move forward.

• Compact Power, Inc. (CPI): CPI is the other GM pageant winner. Based in Troy, MI, CPI is owned by Korean battery maker LG Chem. CPI's large format batteries use a proprietary formula that apparently can withstand 300K recharge cycles. The company further claims a 15 year product life span. Key point: LG Chem will develop and supply all the batteries; CPI is only responsible for design and assembly of the cell packs that will be supplied to GM. Essentially the opposite of the relationship between A123 and Continental AG.
  

• Altairnano: The good news for Altairnano is that performance claims surrounding their batteries were recently verified for the California Air Resources Board by AeroVironoment. AV ran "50 ten-minute fast charging cycles at the module level with a 120-minute discharge to simulate travel at 60 mph" with no battery degradation at all. The findings seem to confirm Altairnano's claim that the battery should be "good for tens of thousands of cycles equivalent to 500,000 miles of vehicle travel." Also, looks like the folks at Altairnano found their Tesla. London-based Lightening Car Company will produce an EV sports car using Altairnano's NanoSafe batteries. At a cost of close to $300K US, it's not going to be a big seller. But, then, no one expects the Tesla Roadster to gain wide market share either. The purpose of an exotic is to draw attention to a technology that will eventually find broader application.
  

Lithium Technology Corp: Some pics.

I wrote about Lithium Technology Corp not too long ago. The father of the PHEV, Dr Andrew Frank of UC Davis, had some nice things to say about their battery technology.

included here. Interesting to note that the battery pack, which LTC claims (througLTC recently posted pictures of their battery packs, which I'veh assumption based on smaller pack performance) could support fuel economy of up to 125 miles per gallon, is meant to replace the OEM battery. Most other conversions systems I've read about / seen supplement the existing on-board battery.

Next steps including further testing of the pack performance in the converted vehicle. Here's a link to the release.

Lithium Technology Corp: Battery Tech Darkhorse?

Trying to keep up with developments in battery technology these is a little like being the circus act where the guy spins dishes at the end of long poles: every time you pay attention to one area, a new development takes place somewhere else.

An announcement today from Lithium Technology, however, made me take notice not so much because of what it said, but for who said it.

Lithium (OTC symbol: LTHU.PK) released information about a new line of large format battery cells using lithium iron phosphate technology. Interesting, yes, but the company release features a quote/testimonial from Dr. Andy Frank of the University of California, Davis. (Dr Frank is widely recognized as the creator of the Plug In Hybrid concept, and has approximately 20 - 25 years of research in the field.) So, understandably, when he makes a quote like the following, it's worth taking notice:

"Batteries made of LTC's cells can provide 3000 charging cycles, which would be able to do 150,000 miles to 80% capacity for a 100 km or 60 mile all electric range plug in hybrid, which no other technology can claim. The new cells... provide improved safety with the iron phosphate chemistry while delivering the impeccable performance they are known for, which is what the auto makers have been in search of; this is a Company that is seriously committed to making hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles an affordable reality for the consumer."

It's worth noting that LTC has supported Dr. Frank's research in the past by supplying battery packs used in build competitions such as Challenge X, so there's obviously a history there.

However, even with that minor caveat, I'd still recommend keeping an eye on developments related to LTC.

Rosy Projections for Advanced Battery Makers

The axiom about supplying picks and shovels to miners as the pathway to financial success seems to be playing out for advanced battery makers as well...

According to The 2007 Advanced Automotive Battery Industry Report, global sales of hybrid vehicles, estimated at 384,000 vehicles in 2006, will reach 1.1 million units in 2010 and 2 million units by 2015. Sales are obviously contingent on a number of factors (continued high oil prices, HEV model availability, etc) but the need for capable batteries looks significant.

Currently, that means nickel metal hydride batteries, but that looks to change. The author of the report, battery expert Dr. Menahem Anderman, suspects that NiMH batteries will continue to capture a dominant part of the market for the immediate future, but that adoption of lithium ion batteries will row rapidly, moving from a projected 5% of market share in 2010 to 36% in 2015.

Dominant NiMH suppliers Panasonic and Sanyo are rapidly developing their lithium ion capability, but are being chased by advanced battery technology being supplied by new companies using nano-technology techniques like Altairnano, A123, and others.

As these new companies to capture the business of automakers (e.g. A123 with GM, and Altairnano with start up Phoenix Motorcars), we could be looking at a new chain of dominant suppliers.

Easy as A123? Maybe not so much.

David Vieau, the CEO of A123 Systems, recently testified before the US Senate Committee on Finance abut the future of advanced vehicles. A significant part of his testimony focused on a recent decision to partner with Hymotion to to develop and sell range extension conversion kits to owners of existing hybrid vehicles.

Now, the folks at A123 are smart folks (I've said as much previously). Far be it from me to critique a bunch of MIT professors and the like; engaging them in a battle of wits would be like sending me into a knife fight with a feather duster.

But with all the major car makers racing to be the first to produce PHEVs (with A123 supplying the battery technology to GM), my sense is that the crop of after market conversion suppliers will shortly be irrelevant.

Vieau points to the fact that there are will be 1 million HEVs on the road by the end of the year, and perhaps 5 million by 2010. OK, that's a lot of cars.

But at a cost of $10,000 (less a purported $3,500 tax credit), the average consumer is going to balk at the cost. Furthermore, manufacturers will almost certainly be close to launching their own PHEVs by 2010. It's reasonable to expect, I think, that a significant portion of hybrid owners will be more interested in upgrading to a new PHEV versus converting their old HEV.

Is there a market for after market conversion? The numbers on the surface seem compelling. But I'd be surprised if 1% of those projected 5 million actually pursued conversion.

Autos: Tesla Range In Doubt

File this under "too-good-to-be-true"?

Much has been written about Tesla Motors, the electric car start up that has become synonymous with the recent innovation explosion in alterntive fuels and efficiecy technology. VCs (VantagePoint, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, JP Morgan Bay Area Equity, etc.) and private investors (notably Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin) have provided the company has been funded to the tune of over $65 million.

Initial range estimates for the company's first roadster model (the Dark Star, pictured here) indicated 250 miles before a required recharge. Following EPA compliance testing, however, that estimate has now dropped to 200 miles. The company attributes this to required added weight for the final production version of the car.

Let's hope that this number doesn't change further. 200 miles of range may still be acceptable to their market. Should it drop below, however, perceptions about the car may begin to shift, impacting the ability to move vehicles after early adopters are sated.

Batteries: A123 Systems

Plug In Hybrids (PHEV) are a modified version of the hybrids currently on the road. Fundamentally, PHEVs increase the electrical range of a hybrid vehicle by incorporating a larger on-board battery and plug that allows for charging the battery off the electrical grid.

While there a number of benefits associated with PHEVs (see CalCars website for a comprehensive overview), the biggest delimiter appears to be battery capability. The common refrain from auto makers seems to be that they would love the build the vehicles, but existing battery technology is not safe enough, does not have storage capability, and/or is too expensive.

A123 Systems of Waterford, MA is working to overcome these challenges. Their story is reminiscent of Akamai: MIT scientists start company at a key moment of industry growth. By using iron phosphate instead of cobalt oxide, and employing nano-technology in the assembly process, A123 has been able to extract more power from batteries in a safer environment. Good overview article in the New York Times.

A123 has raised more than $100 million in venture funds from several investors, and is currently in neogiation with GM (and others) to provide batteries for next generation hybrids and PHEVs. Product lines also extend to battery intensive applications unrelated to autos, such as power tools and remote control. Not surprisingly, the DoD is also interested in their technology.

There are others in the battery technology category, but A123 has generated the most buzz by far. Much more to come.